Weight-Loss Drug Stocks Diverge After Earnings and Guidance
Shares of Eli Lilly surged while Novo Nordisk fell sharply and Amgen advanced after earnings, highlighting how guidance and demand visibility—not just results—are shaping investor reaction across obesity and biotech stocks.
Markets focused on growth durability rather than headline results.
Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO), and Amgen (AMGN) all reported earnings updates tied to demand for high-profile therapies, but their stocks moved in sharply different directions. The divergence reflected how investors weighed forward guidance, product momentum, and competitive positioning.
Key Points
- Eli Lilly shares jumped after a strong earnings beat and raised full-year outlook.
- Novo Nordisk shares fell after management guided to a sales decline in 2026.
- Amgen shares rose following an earnings beat and updated 2026 guidance.
Eli Lilly’s Results Reinforce Growth Momentum
Eli Lilly reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $7.54 per share, well above expectations, while revenue rose 43% year over year to $19.3 billion. Performance was driven primarily by demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, with Mounjaro revenue more than doubling to $7.4 billion and Zepbound revenue rising 123% to $4.3 billion.
The company also issued an upbeat outlook, projecting full-year revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion and adjusted earnings of $33.50 to $35 per share. Following the report, LLY shares climbed nearly 10%, briefly pushing the company’s market capitalization above $1 trillion, even as the broader S&P 500 declined.
Why Did Novo Nordisk Move in the Opposite Direction?
Novo Nordisk delivered solid 2025 results but surprised investors with a cautious outlook for 2026. Management said it expects sales to decline between 5% and 13% at constant exchange rates, reversing last year’s growth.
The outlook cited reduced Medicaid obesity drug coverage, lower realized prices tied to policy changes, and intensifying competition. Following the guidance, NVO shares extended losses, falling sharply over multiple sessions as investors adjusted expectations for future growth.
How Does Amgen Fit Into the Picture?
Amgen reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $5.29 per share, beating expectations, with revenue rising 9% year over year to $9.9 billion. Volume growth across several key products helped offset pricing pressure and higher operating costs.
The company also issued 2026 guidance calling for revenue between $37.0 billion and $38.4 billion and adjusted earnings of $21.60 to $23.00 per share. Shares rose following the report as investors focused on earnings stability, pipeline progress, and updated guidance.
What It Means for Investors
The session illustrated how earnings alone are not driving market reactions across the pharmaceutical sector. Eli Lilly’s surge reflected confidence in sustained volume growth and near-term visibility, while Novo Nordisk’s decline showed how quickly sentiment can shift when guidance points to contraction.
Amgen’s move highlighted a more balanced response, with investors weighing earnings strength against longer-term pipeline execution and cost pressures. Together, the three stocks underscored how markets are differentiating sharply between companies based on forward outlook rather than past performance.
Conclusion
Diverging stock moves among LLY, NVO, and AMGN underscored a market focused on growth durability and guidance clarity. As competition in obesity and specialty drugs intensifies, investor reaction continues to hinge on visibility into demand, pricing, and execution.
FAQs
Why did Eli Lilly stock rise after earnings?
It rose because earnings and revenue exceeded expectations and management issued a stronger-than-expected full-year outlook.
Why did Novo Nordisk stock fall?
It fell after the company guided to a sales decline in 2026, citing pricing pressure and reduced coverage.
Did Amgen beat earnings expectations?
Yes. Amgen reported adjusted earnings and revenue above consensus estimates.
Were weight-loss drugs central to the market reaction?
Yes. Demand trends and guidance related to obesity therapies played a major role in investor response.
What does the divergence between these stocks suggest?
It suggests investors are prioritizing forward guidance and demand visibility over headline earnings beats.
This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor. For details, please refer to our Terms of Use.
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