Starship Progress Fails to Ease SpaceX Valuation Concerns

Starship Advances While SpaceX Shares Keep Sliding

SpaceX (SPCX) fell to a new all-time low Monday even after its 13th Starship test achieved several important milestones. The upper stage deployed 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, relit an engine in space and completed what the company described as its softest ocean splashdown yet.

The technical progress was not enough to reverse the stock's post-IPO decline. Shares briefly fell to $108.66 Monday before recovering to around $110, extending a three-week slide that had already pushed the stock below its $135 IPO price. Investor attention remains centered on SpaceX's valuation, upcoming Aug. 4 earnings report, insider lockup expirations and the company's increasing dependence on Starship.

Key Points

• Starship's 13th test successfully deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, relit an engine in space and completed a controlled upper-stage splashdown, although the Super Heavy booster failed to achieve its planned soft landing.
• SpaceX stock fell to a record low near $109 despite the launch progress, extending a decline that has taken shares below the $135 IPO price and sharply below their June peak.
• Investors are weighing SpaceX's roughly $1.5 trillion valuation, Aug. 4 earnings report and approaching expiration of restrictions covering 911.5 million shares as Starship becomes increasingly important to future operations.

Starship Test Delivers Progress but Leaves a Key Challenge

Friday's Starship flight provided SpaceX with several technical milestones during the first test since its June IPO.

The upper stage reached suborbital space and deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, marking the first Starship test to deploy the actual satellites rather than dummy payloads. The spacecraft also successfully relit an engine in space before reentering the atmosphere and completing a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.

The flight improved on the previous V3 test in May, when the upper stage lost several engines on its way to space. SpaceX described Friday's reentry as Starship's best yet.

The Super Heavy booster also completed the hot-staging separation and flip maneuver that had caused problems during the previous launch. Its return, however, was less successful. Only 10 of 13 engines reportedly fired during the landing burn, preventing the booster from slowing sufficiently before hitting the Gulf of Mexico harder than planned.

Neither vehicle was intended to be recovered during the test, but reliable recovery remains important to SpaceX's goal of making Starship fully reusable.

That capability is central to the economics envisioned for the launch system. SpaceX ultimately wants Starship to operate at much greater frequency, with dozens of launches targeted next year, hundreds in 2028 and eventually thousands.

The company is already considering a more ambitious objective for Flight 14. CEO Elon Musk said SpaceX could attempt to catch Starship's upper stage using the mechanical arms on its Starbase launch tower, provided the review of Flight 13 data does not identify problems.

The company has previously caught a Super Heavy booster with the tower system. Extending that capability to Starship's upper stage would address another part of the reusable architecture SpaceX is developing.

Why Did SpaceX Stock Fall After a Successful Starship Test?

The stock's reaction showed that progress on Starship was not enough to offset concerns surrounding SpaceX's valuation and post-IPO share structure.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at an IPO price of $135. Shares opened around $150 and finished their first session at $160.95 before eventually reaching a June peak above $225.

That early enthusiasm has reversed sharply. Before Monday, SpaceX had fallen for three consecutive weeks and lost approximately 38% over that period. Shares briefly touched $108.66 Monday, setting another record low and leaving the stock well below both its IPO price and post-IPO peak.

The decline came despite broadly positive assessments of Flight 13. The disconnect between operational progress and stock performance suggests the market is evaluating more than individual launch outcomes.

Valuation is one factor receiving increased attention. Even after the decline, SpaceX was valued at roughly $1.5 trillion and cited at approximately 40 times estimated 2026 sales. The company lost $5 billion last year, while another estimate in the input puts revenue at roughly $40 billion this year.

SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company on Aug. 4 will therefore provide investors with additional information about the financial performance behind that valuation. Analysts cited in the input expect a loss of $0.28 per share on revenue of $6.87 billion.

Another concern involves the approaching expiration of restrictions on insider and early-investor sales. Approximately 911.5 million SpaceX shares are currently locked up, compared with 7.6 billion shares outstanding. Rank-and-file employees and some early investors will be able to sell shares beginning on the second trading day after the company's first quarterly report.

The prospect of additional shares becoming available for trading has added another variable to the post-IPO price action.

The broader market backdrop also shows that SpaceX's weakness is not simply the result of an across-the-board decline in large companies. SpaceX has lost nearly $800 billion in market value since the start of July, while Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) gained market value during the month and Apple (AAPL) added roughly $700 billion.

That divergence places greater emphasis on company-specific concerns surrounding SpaceX rather than a uniform retreat from large-cap stocks.

Starship Becomes More Important as Falcon 9 Takes a Smaller Role

SpaceX's transition toward Starship raises the importance of each stage of the rocket's development.

Falcon 9 is currently the company's proven launch platform, operating hundreds of times annually. But SpaceX has begun reducing future reliance on it as the company prepares for Starship to take a larger role.

According to information in the input, SpaceX has begun turning away satellite operators seeking dedicated Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028, stopped accepting Falcon 9 rideshare reservations and halted production of some non-reusable Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy components.

That transition makes Starship reliability increasingly important.

SpaceX designed Starship as a fully reusable launch system intended to lower the cost of reaching space and support much larger payloads. The company also plans to use the platform for future projects including an AI computing satellite constellation beginning in 2028.

Starlink remains another major part of the business, with more than 10 million subscribers. Friday's successful deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites therefore connected Starship development directly with an existing SpaceX business.

Competition is also developing around satellite connectivity.

Amazon (AMZN) filed an application with the Federal Communications Commission seeking authorization for a new network of 5,105 satellites providing mobile-phone connectivity, with launches planned to begin in 2028.

The proposal follows Amazon's acquisition of Globalstar's satellite operations and would combine Globalstar spectrum with Amazon's Leo broadband network. SpaceX, meanwhile, plans to spend $20 billion acquiring spectrum from EchoStar as it builds its own mobile satellite constellation.

Amazon remains behind SpaceX in satellite deployment and lacks its own launch fleet, while delays affecting Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket have already forced it to seek an extension to its existing FCC deployment deadline.

Still, the filing introduces another potential competitor as SpaceX expands Starlink beyond broadband connectivity.

For SpaceX, the combination of Starlink expansion, satellite-to-mobile services and future AI computing infrastructure increases the importance of developing a launch system capable of operating frequently and economically. Friday's test demonstrated progress toward that goal, but the Super Heavy landing showed that technical work remains.

What It Means for Investors

SpaceX's post-IPO performance illustrates the distinction between operational milestones and the expectations already embedded in a company's valuation.

Flight 13 delivered several advances. Starship deployed real Starlink V3 satellites, successfully relit an engine in space and completed its strongest upper-stage reentry and splashdown to date. Those achievements represented tangible progress after problems during earlier V3 testing.

The stock nevertheless reached another low.

That reaction places attention on factors beyond launch execution. SpaceX remains valued at roughly $1.5 trillion despite being unprofitable, while the Aug. 4 earnings report will provide the first quarterly financial test since the company entered public markets.

The approaching lockup expirations create another issue. With 911.5 million shares currently restricted from trading and some becoming eligible for sale shortly after earnings, investors are assessing how additional supply could affect the stock.

Starship's growing strategic importance adds another layer. SpaceX is reducing parts of its future Falcon 9 operation while targeting a dramatic increase in Starship launches. That transition increases the importance of reliability, reusability, refurbishment costs and launch frequency.

Friday's flight addressed some of those questions but not all of them. The upper stage showed improved performance, while the booster failed to achieve its planned soft splashdown.

The next test and the company's first public earnings report therefore address different sides of the same story: whether SpaceX can continue advancing its next-generation launch platform while supporting the financial expectations attached to its public-market valuation.

Conclusion

SpaceX's latest Starship test marked meaningful technical progress, but the stock market delivered a different verdict on the company's broader position.

Flight 13 successfully deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, demonstrated an in-space engine relight and completed a controlled upper-stage splashdown. The Super Heavy booster also improved on its previous test, although three engines failed during its landing burn and the vehicle hit the Gulf of Mexico harder than intended.

Despite those advances, SpaceX shares fell to a new post-IPO low near $109. The stock is now well below its $135 IPO price and roughly half its June peak.

The divergence reflects the questions investors are evaluating beyond individual launches. SpaceX still carries a roughly $1.5 trillion valuation, remains unprofitable, faces its first public earnings report on Aug. 4 and is approaching the expiration of restrictions covering hundreds of millions of shares.

At the same time, SpaceX is increasingly positioning Starship to replace parts of its Falcon 9 operation and support future Starlink, mobile connectivity and space-based computing ambitions.

Flight 13 demonstrated that Starship development is advancing. The continued decline in SpaceX stock shows that technical progress alone has not resolved the market's concerns about valuation, financial performance and execution.

FAQs

Why did SpaceX stock fall despite the successful Starship test?

SpaceX stock fell as investors continued to focus on valuation, upcoming earnings and approaching insider lockup expirations despite technical progress with Starship. Shares reached a new all-time low near $109 after the test.

What did SpaceX accomplish during Starship Flight 13?

Starship deployed 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, relit an engine in space and completed a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. The Super Heavy booster completed key flight maneuvers but failed to achieve its planned soft splashdown.

Why is Starship increasingly important to SpaceX?

SpaceX is shifting more of its future launch strategy toward Starship while reducing parts of its Falcon 9 operation. The company has stopped accepting Falcon 9 rideshare reservations and is turning away some dedicated Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028.

When does SpaceX report earnings?

SpaceX is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on Aug. 4. Analysts cited in the input expect a loss of $0.28 per share on revenue of $6.87 billion.

Why are SpaceX's lockup expirations important?

Approximately 911.5 million SpaceX shares are currently restricted from trading, and some employees and early investors can begin selling shortly after the Aug. 4 earnings report. That would increase the amount of stock available for trading.

This article was created with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor. For details, please refer to our Terms of Use.

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