Airbnb Rises While Expedia Slips on Outlook

Strong bookings met cautious margin signals.

Airbnb (ABNB) and Expedia Group (EXPE) both delivered fourth-quarter results that topped revenue expectations and issued stronger-than-expected first-quarter guidance. However, investor reaction diverged as Airbnb shares moved higher while Expedia stock declined.

The split highlights how markets are weighing growth acceleration against profitability outlook and macroeconomic uncertainty in the online travel sector.

Key Points

• Expedia revenue rose 11% to $3.55 billion, while Airbnb revenue increased 12% to $2.78 billion.
• Both companies guided first-quarter revenue above analyst estimates.
• Margin outlooks for 2026 signaled limited expansion, contributing to mixed investor reaction.

Expedia Beats Estimates but Signals Measured Growth

Expedia reported adjusted earnings of $3.78 per share, ahead of expectations, as revenue climbed 11% year over year to $3.55 billion. Gross bookings rose 11% to $27 billion, and booked room nights increased 9%.

Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded nearly four percentage points to 24%. B2B bookings grew 24% to $8.7 billion, and advertising revenue rose 19%, underscoring strength in enterprise and partner-driven channels.

For 2026, Expedia expects adjusted profit margin to rise by approximately 1 to 1.25 percentage points. Full-year bookings growth is projected at 6% to 8%, with the low end reflecting macro uncertainty and some softness in Asia-related travel corridors.

Despite the earnings beat, shares declined as investors focused on the cautious margin outlook and ongoing concerns about artificial intelligence reshaping travel search behavior.

Cantor analyst Deepak Mathivanan lowered his price target on Expedia to $245 from $285, citing persistent debates about AI risks to online travel agents. He maintained a Neutral rating.

Airbnb Posts Revenue Growth, Reinvests in Expansion

Airbnb reported earnings of $0.56 per share, below expectations due in part to a roughly $90 million one-time non-income tax charge. Revenue rose 12% year over year to $2.78 billion, exceeding estimates.

Gross booking value jumped 16% to $20.4 billion, marking the fastest quarterly growth in more than two years. Nights and experiences booked increased 10% to 121.9 million.

Adjusted EBITDA rose 3% to $786 million, with margins at 28% as the company increased spending on marketing, product development, and AI initiatives.

Airbnb guided first-quarter revenue between $2.59 billion and $2.63 billion, ahead of expectations, and signaled low-double-digit revenue growth for 2026. However, management expects adjusted EBITDA margins to remain roughly flat as it continues reinvesting in growth.

Cantor also reduced its price target for Airbnb to $121 from $141, citing a sluggish long-term growth trajectory, though noting that large-language model chatbots could help drive traffic over time. The stock retains a Neutral rating.

How Are Macro and AI Pressures Shaping Travel Stocks?

Online travel companies are navigating a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, including stubborn inflation and a shaky labor market. Management commentary from both companies referenced consumer caution, even as booking windows lengthen and stays extend.

Artificial intelligence remains an overhang across the sector. Expedia stated it has not yet seen a material traffic impact from AI-driven travel features, while Airbnb is investing heavily in AI-powered personalization and customer support tools.

The market reaction suggests investors are differentiating between revenue momentum and margin trajectory, particularly as companies balance reinvestment against profitability.

What It Means for Investors

The contrasting moves in ABNB stock and EXPE stock reflect how markets are parsing similar top-line strength through different profitability lenses. While both companies delivered better-than-expected revenue and guided first-quarter sales above consensus, margin expectations appear to have shaped investor reaction.

Airbnb’s accelerating gross booking value growth and upbeat guidance supported sentiment, even with flat margin expectations. Expedia’s modest margin expansion forecast and cautious full-year bookings outlook tempered enthusiasm despite strong operational metrics.

In the broader stock market today, travel remains sensitive to macro trends, AI disruption narratives, and evolving consumer spending patterns.

Conclusion

Airbnb and Expedia both delivered earnings beats and solid first-quarter revenue guidance. Yet differing margin trajectories and ongoing AI and macro concerns drove opposite market reactions. As 2026 unfolds, execution on growth initiatives and margin discipline may play a larger role in determining investor sentiment toward online travel stocks.

FAQs

Why did Airbnb stock rise while Expedia stock fell?
Airbnb stock rose as investors focused on accelerating gross booking value growth and upbeat revenue guidance, while Expedia stock fell due to cautious margin expansion forecasts and ongoing AI concerns.

How did Expedia perform in the fourth quarter?
Expedia reported revenue of $3.55 billion, up 11% year over year, with adjusted earnings of $3.78 per share and gross bookings growth of 11%.

What were Airbnb’s key fourth-quarter metrics?
Airbnb generated $2.78 billion in revenue, up 12% year over year, with gross booking value rising 16% to $20.4 billion.

How are AI concerns affecting online travel companies?
AI remains a risk factor as investors debate whether AI-powered search tools could reshape how travelers book trips, though both companies reported no material traffic disruption so far.

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